Fannie Mae trims 2027 mortgage origination forecast as rate outlook rises
In its October outlook, Fannie Mae's research group lowered its forecast for 2027 mortgage originations by 18% on higher expected rates.
Key facts
- Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group now projects $1.86 trillion in 2027 single-family originations, down from $2.27 trillion in its September forecast.
- Fannie Mae's rate forecast now puts the average 30-year mortgage rate for 2027 at 7.5%, compared with 6.7% in the September outlook.
- Projected 2027 refinance originations fell to about $430 billion from a prior estimate of $802 billion.
- The Mortgage Bankers Association expects 30-year rates to stay above 7% through 2027 and total originations to decline 5% to $1.99 trillion.
- Marina Walsh of the MBA said the number of independent mortgage banks fell from about 881 in 2021 to 707 at the end of 2025.
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Read the original at HousingWire (opens in a new tab)
Source: Fannie Mae cuts 2027 origination outlook 18% on weaker refi volume — HousingWire, October 16, 2026. Summary and commentary by RISE Community; read the full story at the source.
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